Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09849d3646b070e79e070d2b9bf174ff38088b35cce030e5a95d2d65830f7b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,071$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 761.12$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 33c | 583.64$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 394.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 374.89$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 284.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 226.77$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 221.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 210.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 166.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 140.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 99.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 96.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 82.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 45c | 76.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 76c | 68.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 67.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 22c | 64.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 65c | 55.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 53.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 34c | 53.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 66c | 53.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 50.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 33c | 46.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 76c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 66c | 43.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 38.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 31c | 36.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 57c | 31.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 64c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 30.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…d8e3backed Yes | 42c | 29.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecd…53d5backed No | 60c | 28.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 42c | 26.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…769cbacked No | 60c | 25.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 80c | 23.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.