Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5a0ec2455941d6263255ec751881daecbd86a31e80fb0b78dc246f8c724e16b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed No | 50c | 924.99$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.61 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked No | 5c | 825.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5014…953cbacked Yes | 53c | 326.85$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.52 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 50c | 316.25$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.73 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 53c | 312.61$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60f7backed Yes | 52c | 253.5$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 49c | 200.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 51c | 178.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc912…0773backed No | 80c | 159.79$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…8728backed Yes | 54c | 107.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +171%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,651 | 27.7%458 W · 1,193 L | +118.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a485backed Yes | 59c | 89.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 48c | 86.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 71.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 67c | 67.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…4b22backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 26c | 43.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…bf30backed Yes | 54c | 31.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…22f8backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 76°F or below on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 77-78°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 79-80°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 83-84°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.