Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Paul (-2.5) vs Sonego (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5f0d14f6a3470e39618ed9e19a84da6ee9624e1fd7a2bbe5c177e5cf796ca54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Paul, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15e9…26bebacked Sonego | 55c | 2,582$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.73 | 228 | 42.5%97 W · 131 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Paul | 45c | 2,356$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.75 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…fe85backed Paul | 47c | 1,401$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.48 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Paul | 45c | 568.07$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.44 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Paul | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Paul | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Sonego | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Paul | 46c | 192.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Sonego | 54c | 187$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Sonego | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…0c86backed Paul | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Paul | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…f8d0backed Sonego | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Paul | 46c | 84.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Paul | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Sonego | 53c | 24.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Paul | 47c | 23.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…edd9backed Sonego | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Paul (-2.5) vs Sonego (+2.5)this page
- Lorenzo Sonego vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy PaulTommy Paul won
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs PaulPaul won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)Paul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.