Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60bf33103b6f1f05e445945730d9d6d9fc1fe1cbe28fb8e42d115ebe54fb102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof Inner Circle, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 5,128$2,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,967.19 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Inner Circle | 67c | 3,586$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.28 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Inner Circle | 60c | 2,067$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.93 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked VP.Prodigy | 43c | 1,644$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.76 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 1,310$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.5 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked VP.Prodigy | 36c | 1,249$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.14 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Inner Circle | 58c | 1,071$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.32 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed Inner Circle | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy | 46c | 724.12$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.52 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Inner Circle | 25c | 700$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed VP.Prodigy | 69c | 570$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…229cbacked VP.Prodigy | 78c | 406.94$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked Inner Circle | 61c | 368.31$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Inner Circle | 63c | 295$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle | 68c | 252.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.28 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 63c | 196.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed VP.Prodigy | 39c | 194.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed VP.Prodigy | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Inner Circle | 41c | 150.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked VP.Prodigy | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 92.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Inner Circle | 49c | 77.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Inner Circle | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…123cbacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 58.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked Inner Circle | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…bf55backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 40.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…6a48backed Inner Circle | 52c | 40.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…4e0cbacked Inner Circle | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked VP.Prodigy | 51c | 36.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Inner Circle | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…925dbacked VP.Prodigy | 58c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a18…0808backed VP.Prodigy | 78c | 28.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Inner Circle | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed VP.Prodigy | 76c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 74cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 PlayoffsVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.