South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc60efeb6743a9edba23c88e9b654c90d66b1ab188c09dc34d931839d5d4a0650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 42c | 5,048$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.36 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 4,753$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.67 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 63c | 633.44$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.44 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 59c | 413.64$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 58c | 330.24$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 62c | 327.5$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.45 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…c953backed Over | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 154.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 10c | 154.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…0c86backed Under | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 33c | 121.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Over | 42c | 80.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…b6bebacked Over | 45c | 66.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 61c | 64.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 61.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 48c | 50.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…8380backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…fdb0backed Over | 44c | 41.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 61c | 40.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 47c | 22.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -16.3wins | -0.36per pick | 43cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5this page
- CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Cuenca vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CD Cuenca (-1.5)Recoleta FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.