Europa Conference League · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc62d40318407da0d088fa761a3927a062b3dd539999cc22f7ff50340f7f4acb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 44c | 12,371$5,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,922.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 55c | 10,521$5,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,826.18 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.33 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.11 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 52c | 652.67$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.57 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 48c | 594$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 523.03$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 263.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 53c | 190.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 56c | 153.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…5a7cbacked Under | 48c | 118.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Under | 47c | 77.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 53c | 75.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 53c | 71.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 53c | 46.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 53c | 38.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 45c | 38.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…1e51backed Over | 53c | 28.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Over | 47c | 21.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Over | 47c | 21.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over | 52c | 20.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…7b0ebacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.