Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6394cd461087de5fbf29fe2701c3e7d7085e955e08eea379a26c78c3a8ccdba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6582…b20bbacked No | 3c | 30,569$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 1c | 2,933$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked No | 1c | 1,012$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 79c | 732.37$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.01 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 697.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 418.14$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 16c | 403.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.01 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 24c | 231.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 191.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.81 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 72c | 172.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 151.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf415…2871backed Yes | 20c | 139.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 21c | 87.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 86.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 59c | 81.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 21c | 64.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 41c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 67c | 57.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 36c | 55.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Yes | 37c | 51.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…dcd0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 26c | 44.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 47c | 40.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…54d6backed No | 74c | 40.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…c3e6backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 68c | 38.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 35.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 53c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936d…81b1backed No | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c9dcbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -5.6wins | -0.43per pick | 74cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.