Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc654b68065390e7bef4f8e5d84475cefe5b684e2cd5e7eeb70bceb3f0f582722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6379…c82ebacked No | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…7c09backed Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +193.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 27c | 450.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 353.95$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 329.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 25c | 288.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 287.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 257.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed No | 74c | 241.88$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Yes | 26c | 240.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 219.32$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed No | 76c | 200.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 189.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 127.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…b8ccbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked No | 76c | 99.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 82.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 75.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 72c | 69.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 73c | 66.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 73c | 64.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 74c | 64.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…c9eebacked No | 74c | 62.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 26c | 58.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 74c | 57.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 73c | 51.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 74c | 48.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed No | 73c | 39.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 35.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 29c | 34.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 29c | 34.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed No | 76c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.