Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yoshihito Nishioka vs Alexander Shevchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67d534c9dacbb4fb62a5ce94c33cbbca8b32fa51d54ed7e92c4e4a24cab0168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nishiokaof Nishioka, Shevchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Shevchenko | 26c | 1,012$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.8 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nishioka | 58c | 958$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.96 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Shevchenko | 42c | 877$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.84 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nishioka | 61c | 822.69$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.42 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shevchenko | 42c | 710.86$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.46 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Nishioka | 73c | 600$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Nishioka | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Shevchenko | 7c | 356$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nishioka | 53c | 284.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Shevchenko | 37c | 260.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Nishioka | 57c | 226$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.06 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shevchenko | 28c | 224$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Shevchenko | 34c | 221.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Shevchenko | 47c | 214.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Nishioka | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…b31dbacked Shevchenko | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Shevchenko | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Shevchenko | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nishioka | 54c | 54.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Shevchenko | 46c | 54.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Shevchenko | 26c | 54.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Shevchenko | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Shevchenko | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Shevchenko | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.