Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Jacob Fearnley
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc67fb7a727a313e802dc2626b29fae84f904634f443e70c1010b62465b9fb34c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fearnleyof Hanfmann, Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Hanfmann | 43c | 2,914$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Fearnley | 57c | 2,609$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.98 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Fearnley | 55c | 726.53$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.94 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Fearnley | 56c | 484.13$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.02 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Hanfmann | 45c | 430.68$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Fearnley | 57c | 333$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…cb62backed Fearnley | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fearnley | 74c | 260$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Fearnley | 55c | 251.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Hanfmann | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Hanfmann | 43c | 199$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Hanfmann | 13c | 192.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Fearnley | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Hanfmann | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Hanfmann | 41c | 125.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…7341backed Hanfmann | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Hanfmann | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Hanfmann | 46c | 41.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…a2e5backed Fearnley | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Fearnley | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…f13bbacked Fearnley | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.