NFL · resolved market
Will the Texans win by 6 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ac775263463bbeed78d3c9a9df431d4fbf9544ca346be3adbf1c80d75c8b7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Texans | 56c | 4,328$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.04 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Bears | 45c | 2,094$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.67 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Bears | 44c | 1,658$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.94 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Bears | 2c | 1,525$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Bears | 42c | 535.08$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Bears | 44c | 425.36$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +240.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Bears | 46c | 417.54$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Texans | 55c | 208.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Texans | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Bears | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed Bears | 33c | 114.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Texans | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Bears | 41c | 84.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…5284backed Texans | 59c | 84.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Texans | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked Bears | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Texans | 60c | 58.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…a8bcbacked Texans | 59c | 55.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Bears | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Bears | 41c | 42.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…17c7backed Texans | 60c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…e90dbacked Texans | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Texans win by 6 or more points?this page
- Will there be 45 or more combined points scored?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.