Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c137a57d9c9a077179db19d858532dc1da609c9dce3ebe5e2001bf4936063d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 2c | 11,883$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.49 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…452fbacked Yes | 4c | 9,676$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 14c | 4,059$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.56 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 2,823$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 4c | 1,479$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 7c | 967.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 899.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 3c | 694.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 647.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef78…6e1bbacked Yes | 2c | 512.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 5c | 330.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e9…cae9backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 9c | 159.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…35cbbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…d282backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 18-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.