Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc242bf544b7b1c0d6cd302067918f6ab5637ad395212b42597d573972c4dab5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 19c | 5,609$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.13 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…452fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 29c | 2,125$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.12 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 6c | 1,786$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 73c | 1,780$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.4 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 11c | 1,705$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,386$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.51 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes | 18c | 1,005$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 5c | 936.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 580.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 13c | 569.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 547.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 10c | 541.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…d1efbacked Yes | 12c | 541.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed No | 67c | 501.91$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…608cbacked Yes | 20c | 477.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 5c | 422.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 6c | 346$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7001…b72fbacked Yes | 20c | 244.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…3650backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…a48ebacked Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 16c | 188.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 18c | 172.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 29c | 119.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 30cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 49c | 113$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…2199backed Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 66c | 94.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…37aebacked Yes | 21c | 85.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…d21cbacked Yes | 58c | 59.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…23c5backed Yes | 24c | 57.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…8b40backed Yes | 27c | 56.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 50.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…a472backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…6954backed Yes | 28c | 47.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…d7a5backed Yes | 28c | 47.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1c4cbacked No | 76c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 68c | 30.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 18-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.