Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6cc43d51411cb9d14325c5a44168b0098de722bf38ebc8617bffa45e09cb626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 4,147$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.76 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 3,687$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.94 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Yes | 19c | 3,336$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 2,362$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.42 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Yes | 20c | 1,967$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 996$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b3…3af6backed Yes | 6c | 549.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 18c | 495$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…22d6backed No | 80c | 375.88$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 4c | 360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked No | 80c | 344$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 18c | 342.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 15c | 335.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes | 18c | 261.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 5c | 250.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 11c | 244.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 224.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…fdcdbacked Yes | 20c | 212$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…d0c4backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 8c | 184$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc02b…e70cbacked Yes | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…e905backed No | 80c | 154$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 15c | 145$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed No | 80c | 125.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 18c | 111.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 80c | 108.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 15c | 84.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 18c | 64.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 17c | 59.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.