Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Dakota State Bison vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6e8e5d014f9182ff359643a4f84db652813036825a030dea087f8be51b6dc3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas State Red Wolvesof North Dakota State Bison, Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 30c | 964.77$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.57 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed North Dakota State Bison | 71c | 538.73$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.56 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 46c | 473.82$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.94 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b9…ed3abacked North Dakota State Bison | 35c | 447.84$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.71 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed North Dakota State Bison | 54c | 275$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed North Dakota State Bison | 41c | 250.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed North Dakota State Bison | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed North Dakota State Bison | 39c | 104$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed North Dakota State Bison | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed North Dakota State Bison | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.