NHL · resolved market
DEL: ERC Ingolstadt vs. EHC Red Bull Muenchen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc70795b060e44fef902a2bd157cc8d79f2f40fe70ac1a77b5d6cb7aa5569ac63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EHC Red Bull Muenchenof ERC Ingolstadt, EHC Red Bull Muenchen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0b6…c569backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 724$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…3617backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 574$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2b…a454backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 574$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…ccc7backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 423$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed ERC Ingolstadt | 53c | 231$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…e511backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 219.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5312…584abacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 219.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…e56cbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 219$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f52…4ce0backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 217$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…cc0fbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 217$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…04b5backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 216.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd672…2d75backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 216$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a84…2662backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 215.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a4…9560backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 215$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…a7e9backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 214.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…a473backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 213.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4f…7993backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 213$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…f7f1backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 213$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab5…96dfbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 213$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebc…ff77backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 212.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c19…73fdbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 211$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafb…aaddbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 208.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…eb00backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 208$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…58a2backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 207.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e0…db60backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 207.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef8a…1fbabacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 207$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33e…6f03backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 207$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…ebf4backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 206.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2e…41c0backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 205.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…1703backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 204.06$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…6a2cbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 203$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…18dcbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 202.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…e28abacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 202.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…22a1backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 202$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…065ebacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 201.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…4d07backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 201$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…288ebacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 200.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdd…4aa4backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…1b40backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 199$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…0feebacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 199$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…be2abacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 198.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…1bd9backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 198$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…5d54backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 198$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…ca2bbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 197.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03a…a785backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 197.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbf…299abacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 196.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…5e18backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 196$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…311abacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 195.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…ce3ebacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 195$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…7bf6backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 194.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…8823backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 192.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…d6d5backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 192$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…1f8dbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 191.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ac…ae7ebacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 191.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b5…1b8ebacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 191$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ERC Ingolstadt | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…1aa5backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 189$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…2abebacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 188.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…a921backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 187.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…20e0backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 187$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…0dabbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 187$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…fe3fbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 186$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…5fbebacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 186$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…25cdbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 180.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…cbe2backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 179$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 47c | 173$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…97eabacked ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…7f3dbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 53c | 139.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 22c | 136.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…0c6cbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 48c | 131$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 45c | 107.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…d831backed ERC Ingolstadt | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…d55cbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 20c | 58.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 77c | 52.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 199 | 64.3%128 W · 71 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 47c | 30.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 64c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.