Tennis · resolved market
Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc70c950069cca82c3f50354c4b2e2f401e38df7723e0b745ce0e0a1144199954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 6,434$3,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,037.7 | 4,126 | 44.6%1,842 W · 2,284 L | +13.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 4,428$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.17 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 49c | 2,440$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.58 | 1,143 | 41.3%472 W · 671 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 51c | 2,432$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.23 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Over | 51c | 647$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.03 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 567.09$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.01 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 50c | 513$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Over | 51c | 485$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.65 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 50c | 333.04$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.52 | 218 | 59.2%129 W · 89 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Over | 50c | 309$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 317 | 49.5%157 W · 160 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Over | 51c | 196.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Over | 51c | 194$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Over | 60c | 149.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 743 | 43.7%325 W · 418 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Over | 54c | 142.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Over | 50c | 138.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 50c | 114.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 663 | 47.1%312 W · 351 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Over | 55c | 96.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Over | 51c | 76.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…07c3backed Over | 50c | 51.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 52c | 37.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 808 | 56.9%460 W · 348 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…7ab4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…1ddfbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs SwiatekKostyuk won
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5)Swiatek won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)Kostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.