Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec89d7dcc8005d1322a1ce5ade2bf8883677b1803432add6a1ded40a6f74076d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kostyukof Swiatek, Kostyuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Swiatek | 36c | 413.39$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Kostyuk | 62c | 389.67$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.07 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Kostyuk | 64c | 322.81$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed Swiatek | 38c | 287.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…3430backed Kostyuk | 64c | 266.89$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Kostyuk | 62c | 238.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Swiatek | 38c | 174.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Swiatek | 36c | 144.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Swiatek | 52c | 110.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kostyuk | 48c | 110.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…aff6backed Kostyuk | 64c | 104.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Swiatek | 36c | 91.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Swiatek | 37c | 85.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Kostyuk | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kostyuk | 61c | 73.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…de4abacked Swiatek | 39c | 73.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Swiatek | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5)this page
- Kostyuk vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs SwiatekKostyuk won
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5)Swiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.