Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc733e3564b573e520eb222c4e7e4aba429be2bf09ebb400db9398a01d43d17fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Shpilitof Inner Circle, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,658 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Inner Circle | 51c | 1,882$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.92 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…bf3bbacked Inner Circle | 1c | 1,486$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…e5d6backed Team Shpilit | 72c | 822.15$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Team Shpilit | 35c | 614.62$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Inner Circle | 64c | 488.54$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.14 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Shpilit | 33c | 377.77$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.82 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Inner Circle | 66c | 356.79$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.15 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Shpilit | 34c | 286.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.14 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Inner Circle | 67c | 263.01$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 201.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Team Shpilit | 35c | 168.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…e42cbacked Team Shpilit | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Inner Circle | 63c | 144.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Inner Circle | 67c | 138$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…be40backed Team Shpilit | 40c | 96.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Team Shpilit | 37c | 87.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Team Shpilit | 36c | 86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Inner Circle | 70c | 78.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Shpilit | 30c | 63.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Team Shpilit | 30c | 53.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…681ebacked Team Shpilit | 26c | 53.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed Team Shpilit | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Inner Circle | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Team Shpilit | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - CCT Group BTeam Shpilit won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
- Game Handicap: IC (-1.5) vs Team Shpilit (+1.5)Team Shpilit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.