Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7561fba9996da2490f1728c655b86eed6b3d3f8c8c35c106435b6cc3c47d4d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 6c | 2,224$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.95 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 863.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 625.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 7c | 619.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 207 | 10.1%21 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 588.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 553.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 8c | 529.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 278 | 45.7%127 W · 151 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 10c | 502.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 8c | 370.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 228 | 25.9%59 W · 169 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 6c | 308$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 6c | 302.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 299.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 7c | 254.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 6c | 226.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 10c | 195.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e75…0f1ebacked Yes | 12c | 185.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 7c | 170.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 959 | 19.7%189 W · 770 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 125.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 13c | 122.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.