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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x906f…371abacked No66c1,638$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.632,50669.7%1,747 W · 759 L+78.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c537.87$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.7210,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes42c481.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.8717224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes39c475.71$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.8462960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes42c453.54$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9153548.2%258 W · 277 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c418.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.981,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No58c400$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.181,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No62c372.35$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.421,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes77c349.65$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8314887.8%130 W · 18 L+28.3wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No65c347.26$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.068763.2%55 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes36c295.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.3162146.2%287 W · 334 L+40.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes34c294.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1129043.8%127 W · 163 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No61c287.64$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.672,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes44c272.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8318145.3%82 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes39c262.75$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7926556.2%149 W · 116 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f64…452abacked No59c254.23$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No58c214.88$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7382742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c199.19$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.974,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes44c178.05$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6341927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes44c169.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6725429.1%74 W · 180 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c167.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4312,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes41c164.66$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.475,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No66c164.01$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.81,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c153.17$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.562,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes34c146.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7224349.4%120 W · 123 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes34c144.15$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8160032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes36c140.91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.175431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No57c140.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4456067.1%376 W · 184 L+26.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No50c126.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.391,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes38c122.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.045341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes43c118.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2463247.3%299 W · 333 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes34c115.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2817538.9%68 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c114.48$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.284,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes35c113.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7855942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c113.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes45c106$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.31,24630%374 W · 872 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c105.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.329,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No71c105.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7527578.5%216 W · 59 L+51.6wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+29%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes42c104.06$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4326038.5%100 W · 160 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes39c102.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9612945.7%59 W · 70 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696835.3%24 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.118350.8%93 W · 90 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c99.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.995,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No24c98.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.632,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes42c95.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.154953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes41c95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.126253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No55c94.16$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.767944.6%303 W · 376 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No58c92.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.755651.8%29 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52c6…4347backed No54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ec7…12f7backed No54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No62c91.44$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4216668.1%113 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8a…627cbacked Yes37c90$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.86560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes40c89.43$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.221,11923.7%265 W · 854 L+74.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes37c86.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5554738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes37c81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0385535.7%305 W · 550 L+1.9wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes41c79.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.411444.7%51 W · 63 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No62c79.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.332,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No64c78.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.892,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No56c78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.69652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes47c76.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.782,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes41c75.08$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.318157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d60…d955backed No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113224.2%32 W · 100 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c69.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.493,81065.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed Yes44c68.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.527630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes43c64.76$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9129051.4%149 W · 141 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No52c63.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3163122.5%142 W · 489 L-29.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked Yes43c63.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.147452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c62.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.294,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No18c62.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4613852.2%72 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes30c60.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0545630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.36651.5%34 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes39c59.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.48236.6%30 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes42c58.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.258247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No55c57.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.672,21656.8%1,258 W · 958 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No59c56.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes42c52.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7911527.8%32 W · 83 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed No54c52.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.296666.7%44 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes41c51.69$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.56,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3318722.5%42 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,03231.3%949 W · 2,083 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338822.7%20 W · 68 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x744f…caffbacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338725.3%22 W · 65 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339920.2%20 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No66c48.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7527944.4%124 W · 155 L-14.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked Yes32c47.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.124936.7%18 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No59c47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.622,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x550e…94dbbacked Yes43c46.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.795944.1%26 W · 33 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No35c45.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.152114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No53c45.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7920736.7%76 W · 131 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No54c44.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0245566.2%301 W · 154 L+20.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a25…4e62backed No53c44.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.571361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4810735.5%38 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No62c43.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.972,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes46c43.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2519946.2%92 W · 107 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No60c43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81,19650.8%608 W · 588 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No27c42.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.452,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.