Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor vs. Duke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7785899014273d14470a33acc5e54c10e7caaa1694afc76333d3525a5526956
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Baylor, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $279,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Baylor | 10c | 120,323$11,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,931.83 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -13.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Baylor | 13c | 24,057$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Baylor | 12c | 16,151$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.09 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…936fbacked Baylor | 12c | 15,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7709…5852backed Baylor | 13c | 10,150$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed Baylor | 10c | 7,524$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Baylor | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Baylor | 2c | 3,714$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Baylor | 11c | 3,636$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Baylor | 12c | 2,498$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Baylor | 2c | 1,848$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +629.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x854f…00a7backed Baylor | 7c | 1,358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xccda…4988backed Baylor | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Baylor | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Baylor | 12c | 808.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…fa23backed Baylor | 12c | 711.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Baylor | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 3.7%5 W · 131 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Baylor | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baylor | 8c | 554.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Baylor | 11c | 538.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Baylor | 13c | 503.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…2c5dbacked Baylor | 9c | 499.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Baylor | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Baylor | 12c | 429.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…9e23backed Baylor | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…780dbacked Baylor | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Baylor | 15c | 205.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Baylor | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Baylor | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc814…0ab8backed Baylor | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…7c8cbacked Baylor | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Baylor | 13c | 157.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Baylor | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7febbacked Baylor | 9c | 126.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Baylor | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Baylor | 16c | 73.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.