Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Czech Republic vs Estonia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7ad19976f02432a25c547663910203212f12109f9b26199c83544b7821eeeeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estoniaof Republic, Estonia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Republic | 39c | 1,938$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Estonia | 68c | 1,416$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Republic | 50c | 936.7$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.43 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Estonia | 49c | 912.43$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.34 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Estonia | 68c | 868.76$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Estonia | 60c | 475$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Republic | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Estonia | 51c | 350$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…a8eebacked Republic | 43c | 165$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…0e6bbacked Republic | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Republic | 47c | 95.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Estonia | 66c | 87.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Estonia | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b6f5backed Republic | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Estonia | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…4581backed Republic | 55c | 42.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f30…ed96backed Estonia | 52c | 40.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Estonia | 45c | 40.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Estonia | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Estonia | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Republic | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…805cbacked Republic | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.