Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc828e81f51512072d39c3653132d7c24ba981df50f3411faab9ddfa3aa2dce52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 5c | 327.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 294.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 13c | 231.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 11c | 206.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 189.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 185.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 32c | 175.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 170.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 158.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 152.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 65c | 146.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed No | 79c | 144.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 132.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 125.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 101.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 26c | 92.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 25c | 89.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 20c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 71c | 82.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 80.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 70c | 71.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 27c | 68.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 24c | 57.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 56.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 75c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 76c | 49.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 41c | 48.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 23c | 48.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…c265backed Yes | 30c | 46.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 79c | 45.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 40.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 72c | 37.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 77c | 36.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 69c | 33.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 28.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 77c | 24.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 74c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…70f5backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 76c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 76c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 18.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…825bbacked No | 77c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 76c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69c6…fff3backed No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.