Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf415e7a71df0cd1990356527d6ec45dbd74102dcb17389b6094ac63cdc767aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,372$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed Yes | 74c | 605.07$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 59c | 501.88$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.07 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 302.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 64c | 293.71$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.9 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 293.23$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 72c | 267.28$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 249.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.07 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 79c | 230.73$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 207.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 173.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 157.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 148.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 66c | 134.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 127.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 110.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 48c | 108.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 32c | 98.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 44c | 98.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 41c | 94.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 90.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 52c | 86.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 83.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…f376backed Yes | 37c | 81.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 47c | 79.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 73.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 71.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 39c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 59c | 64.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 55.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 37c | 54.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 65c | 48.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 46.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked No | 62c | 46.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 45.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 39c | 38.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 38.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 41c | 36.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 55c | 34.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 48c | 33.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 65c | 32.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 56c | 29.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 28.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…c821backed No | 60c | 27.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 26.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 77c | 22.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 63c | 19.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 62c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 71c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.