MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc839e48ab48d6b5b744b0c3b7db5974c1a6e4ac06af22359da4eb77ac0737d23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1e0…8913backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 1,465$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.3 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 1,215$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.5 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 1,086$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.13 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…76fabacked Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 906.71$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 529.21$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.19 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 7c | 337.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 310$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 222.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 162.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.