Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89ed547d56fd90efe6a0bdd0ebba563ed5999dcfeb8c2ea54d2dd18ba415f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 31c | 566.13$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.28 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 217.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 208.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 17c | 198.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 165.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 151.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 73c | 130.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 114.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 40c | 114.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 66c | 109.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 22c | 107.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 73c | 100.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 97.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 78c | 94.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 65c | 90.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 88.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 68c | 83.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 81.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 64c | 75.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 30c | 75.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 74.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…cc7dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 72.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 68c | 72.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 39c | 71.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 69c | 71.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 69.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 32c | 58.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 63c | 53.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 53.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 49.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 48.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 30c | 48.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked No | 63c | 45.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 44.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…0388backed Yes | 31c | 44.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 28c | 41.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 34.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b2…9d28backed No | 67c | 23.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 80c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 75c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 78c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.