Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8b2db2f9479b23986ef6fd4a04b049a8f2fdaa8036d883c7c8a88a154940057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 3c | 1,270$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 581.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 181.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 177.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 73c | 137.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 131.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 14c | 113.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 107.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 98.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 26c | 90.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…7e99backed No | 73c | 84.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 34c | 84.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 15c | 80.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 78c | 68.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 74c | 67.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 34c | 59.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 23c | 58.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 57.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 65c | 44.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 44.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 72c | 41.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 40.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 38.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 34.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 74c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 75c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 25.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 77c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 71c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.