Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8baae47c03c7ac2820db99b327716ca005bbc792751ffa201118ea5bb3f4076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trungellitiof Cerundolo, Trungelliti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Trungelliti | 57c | 766$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Trungelliti | 52c | 614.73$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.09 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Cerundolo | 48c | 614.73$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.09 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cerundolo | 43c | 592.24$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.66 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Trungelliti | 55c | 450$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Cerundolo | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Cerundolo | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cerundolo | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Trungelliti | 55c | 89.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Cerundolo | 47c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 357 | 47.9%171 W · 186 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Trungelliti | 53c | 85.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Cerundolo | 45c | 84.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cerundolo | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Trungelliti | 50c | 41.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Cerundolo | 50c | 31.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5)this page
- Cerundolo vs. Trungelliti: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Cerundolo vs. Trungelliti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco TrungellitiMarco Trungelliti won
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Marco Trungelliti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs TrungellitiTrungelliti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.