Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8ea16becb3abd02e986e459dacfc6d580c38af880faa5d5259e4b3702264cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 779.36$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 649.02$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 76c | 568.43$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked No | 5c | 340$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf29b…961ebacked No | 49c | 325.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked Yes | 64c | 306.77$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 8c | 174.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e8…2616backed No | 79c | 170.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed Yes | 77c | 161.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 55c | 141.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed Yes | 65c | 133.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 10c | 115.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 47c | 107.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…1aeabacked Yes | 56c | 94.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 89.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 52c | 77.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked No | 19c | 76.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 28c | 71.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 69.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 69.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 42c | 63.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 65c | 63.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 62.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 64c | 56.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 44c | 53.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 41c | 53.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…33c9backed No | 36c | 52.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 37c | 50.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 51c | 50.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 52c | 48.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Yes | 53c | 44.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 43.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…f299backed Yes | 64c | 43.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…9fb7backed No | 80c | 42.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 49c | 39.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…7d83backed No | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…c352backed Yes | 61c | 34.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…828abacked No | 80c | 34.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…71c8backed Yes | 48c | 33.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 55c | 31.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…e07cbacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 52c | 28.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…fda8backed Yes | 52c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2368…1582backed Yes | 53c | 28.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 36c | 27.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…6fa6backed Yes | 60c | 26.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…f9aabacked Yes | 76c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 47c | 26.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…a31dbacked Yes | 47c | 23.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…c4c3backed Yes | 65c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…6424backed No | 55c | 21.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…610cbacked Yes | 49c | 21.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 47c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 58c | 19.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 68c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked No | 66c | 17.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed Yes | 72c | 16.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 72c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.