Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6a44d8ae95f44268f574d89964ffb1f6a650f6917cc60a39e0a2d7e142e7217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 893.89$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 2c | 821.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf29b…961ebacked Yes | 12c | 718.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 508.26$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 471.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 410.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 3c | 387.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 369.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 8c | 327.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 24c | 281.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 270.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 20c | 268.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…71c8backed Yes | 17c | 263.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 11c | 202.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 12c | 198.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 8c | 146.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 144.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed Yes | 17c | 138.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 136.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7779…1de9backed Yes | 13c | 104.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed No | 79c | 82.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 78.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 16c | 62.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 26c | 59.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 59.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 23c | 54.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 79c | 50.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 39c | 47.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 36c | 43.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 40c | 42.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…1aeabacked Yes | 55c | 41.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed No | 55c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 74c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa808…74f1backed No | 68c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.