TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Roar Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Roar Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,047 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x11ea…594fbacked Roar Gaming1c1,129$11 inLost-$11.2915942.8%68 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2837…39d8backed Rune Eaters64c690.98$442 inWon+$248.757100%7 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Roar Gaming47c550$258 inLost-$258.580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Rune Eaters53c350.21$186 inWon+$164.613850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Roar Gaming36c230.04$83 inLost-$82.8111947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Roar Gaming10c200$19 inLost-$1965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Roar Gaming28c172.05$48 inLost-$47.8314832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Roar Gaming36c165$59 inLost-$59.470236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Roar Gaming41c156.56$65 inLost-$64.8467043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Roar Gaming35c100$35 inLost-$359339.8%37 W · 56 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeba1…838bbacked Rune Eaters72c100$72 inWon+$281872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Rune Eaters65c97.9$64 inWon+$34.2614747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44fa…d852backed Rune Eaters77c95.63$73 inWon+$22.14862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick76cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Roar Gaming36c94.9$34 inLost-$34.1610961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Rune Eaters71c94$66 inWon+$27.7125253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Roar Gaming21c74.98$16 inLost-$15.732,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Roar Gaming23c71.53$16 inLost-$16.458250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Roar Gaming38c66.45$25 inLost-$25.0664123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Rune Eaters39c51.28$20 inWon+$31.2854648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4547…ac9bbacked Rune Eaters77c20$15 inWon+$4.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc7…3a77backed Rune Eaters80c14.77$12 inWon+$3250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.