Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc90e1dce545284ec80ff66706107025df46bf5a3b15be7f364cb1a7f18d4ef20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 25,846$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,916$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.88 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 8c | 943.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.04 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 8c | 758.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 505.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 409.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 229.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 6c | 174.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 13c | 172.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.16 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 6c | 168.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.35 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 78c | 108.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 100.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x667e…7231backed Yes | 77c | 98.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 47c | 95.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked Yes | 64c | 80.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 23c | 57.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 35c | 49.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 48.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 63c | 45.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 34c | 40.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 64c | 37.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 75c | 31.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 62c | 30.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…c3f9backed No | 76c | 19.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 74cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 79c | 15.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.