Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa55b08ed33dee3becb17a197b88cea07825e2a27deb87666437100dc341e42cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 38c | 849.37$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.32 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 476.3$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 446.69$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.31 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 370.92$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 42c | 303.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 291.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 258.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 69c | 241.75$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 183.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 60c | 162.56$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 111.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 79c | 106.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 11c | 91.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 37c | 86.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 84.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 77.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 77.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 76.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 33c | 75.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 24c | 69.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 67.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 65.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 37c | 62.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 34c | 61.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…f292backed Yes | 41c | 57.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 55.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 53.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Yes | 27c | 52.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 48c | 49.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 48.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 38c | 45.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 44.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 31c | 43.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…aae8backed Yes | 35c | 43.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 67c | 43.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 25c | 40.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 35c | 39.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 35.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 34.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 74c | 33.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 74c | 33.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 51c | 32.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 31.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed No | 71c | 29.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 44c | 29.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 28.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 28.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 68c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 65c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 42c | 27.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 50c | 23.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb798…37cabacked No | 74c | 23.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 57c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 53c | 19.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 77c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…728fbacked Yes | 75c | 15.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.