Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc941dc7382ff9c5b961ea22cd4adec8daad492b49dff4ef2477ad96f45c41f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, eSuba
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed NightBirds | 77c | 12,618$9,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,928.21 | 403 | 70.2%283 W · 120 L | +31.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed eSuba | 29c | 5,095$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.83 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efa…fa43backed eSuba | 12c | 4,050$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.05 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked eSuba | 23c | 3,595$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.1 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed eSuba | 10c | 1,381$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 1,056 | 28.5%301 W · 755 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed eSuba | 23c | 1,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed eSuba | 24c | 1,228$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked eSuba | 40c | 1,228$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.23 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed eSuba | 24c | 999.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0563…8b03backed eSuba | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 684 | 43.6%298 W · 386 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…e9cabacked NightBirds | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,536 | 62.6%961 W · 575 L | +157.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed NightBirds | 55c | 636.15$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.56 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked eSuba | 23c | 600.04$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 563 | 17.2%97 W · 466 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed NightBirds | 53c | 215.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 392 | 39%153 W · 239 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed NightBirds | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 941 | 34.5%325 W · 616 L | +33.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed eSuba | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 282 | 40.4%114 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…e7c8backed eSuba | 42c | 154.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed eSuba | 53c | 138.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed eSuba | 23c | 110.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…40bbbacked NightBirds | 73c | 99.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked eSuba | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 63.2%144 W · 84 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed eSuba | 24c | 69.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8427backed eSuba | 29c | 68.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NightBirds | 76c | 57.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,341 | 40.3%943 W · 1,398 L | -61.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed eSuba | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters PlayoffsNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 2 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.