CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Imperial (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc95ed1a49bd00f4ffdd9b23f0f5ab21432a6c8dd684e6432ca22dfb6ef044369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Imperial
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 27,850$21,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,186.03 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 20,604$15,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,326.4 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Imperial | 26c | 20,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.9 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Imperial | 27c | 11,496$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.3 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Imperial | 20c | 9,566$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.88 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Imperial | 20c | 6,148$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.51 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Imperial | 21c | 3,837$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.76 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Imperial | 26c | 2,801$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.11 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Imperial | 17c | 2,717$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.38 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 2,598$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.14 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a75…f947backed Imperial | 9c | 1,510$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 1,420$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.1 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Imperial | 20c | 1,292$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.86 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2b…d2d4backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 1,284$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Imperial | 20c | 1,239$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…aaf4backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 1,060$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…27c2backed Imperial | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 716.37$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.73 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 695.54$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.02 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Imperial | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Imperial | 24c | 641.04$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 518.28$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.66 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c2…0f74backed Imperial | 37c | 506.78$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Imperial | 26c | 485.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…5ca3backed Imperial | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 450.65$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 431.1$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Imperial | 13c | 413.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 400$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 446 | 48.4%216 W · 230 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere | 79c | 361.76$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63f…8032backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 293$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 275$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 265.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…b9d1backed Imperial | 39c | 256.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…6116backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 241.56$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Imperial | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…3b7dbacked Imperial | 28c | 189.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Imperial | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Imperial | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Imperial | 21c | 138.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 137.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Imperial | 38c | 133$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Imperial | 35c | 122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked Imperial | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90fd…3443backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 99.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…0f4cbacked Imperial | 22c | 96.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 83.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 78.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…1a85backed Imperial | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…eaf3backed Imperial | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Imperial | 18c | 64.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b3…5411backed Natus Vincere | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dec…e054backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 51.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 37.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -18.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 35.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…b0b7backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…e420backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.