Lol · resolved market
LoL: RAYN Clocks vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc960fa354fee43571b7b4c8b7adde75ed794b2035cf9bb32866b62e43391241e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnebof RAYN Clocks, Arneb
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddf1…d4aebacked Arneb | 47c | 1,622$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.97 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Arneb | 47c | 912.44$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.8 | 1,441 | 43.4%625 W · 816 L | +105.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…5c31backed RAYN Clocks | 55c | 722.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed RAYN Clocks | 52c | 676.53$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.18 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed RAYN Clocks | 49c | 434.96$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…d1e5backed RAYN Clocks | 49c | 417.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed RAYN Clocks | 49c | 383.74$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Arneb | 55c | 338.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.33 | 698 | 41.8%292 W · 406 L | +46.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Arneb | 52c | 329$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.77 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…5a2cbacked RAYN Clocks | 48c | 231$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed RAYN Clocks | 45c | 207.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…fc19backed RAYN Clocks | 49c | 205.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -8.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Arneb | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 566 | 50%283 W · 283 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…b58fbacked RAYN Clocks | 55c | 186$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 56cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed RAYN Clocks | 55c | 139.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 238 | 38.2%91 W · 147 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed RAYN Clocks | 53c | 133.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Arneb | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 797 | 45.8%365 W · 432 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…8f09backed RAYN Clocks | 48c | 123.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Arneb | 54c | 122.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 1,792 | 51.1%916 W · 876 L | +50.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked RAYN Clocks | 46c | 122.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 256 | 40.6%104 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked RAYN Clocks | 52c | 101.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Arneb | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…586cbacked Arneb | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 269 | 37.5%101 W · 168 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Arneb | 57c | 97.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 527 | 43.5%229 W · 298 L | +32.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked RAYN Clocks | 50c | 90.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Arneb | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked RAYN Clocks | 40c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 903 | 37.5%339 W · 564 L | -18.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked RAYN Clocks | 44c | 64.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 390 | 44.6%174 W · 216 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…b3d8backed Arneb | 55c | 54.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 243 | 59.3%144 W · 99 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Arneb | 57c | 50.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 520 | 49.2%256 W · 264 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed RAYN Clocks | 39c | 49.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked RAYN Clocks | 46c | 36.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed Arneb | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Arneb | 55c | 31.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Arneb | 55c | 31.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…6461backed RAYN Clocks | 55c | 30.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…37e2backed Arneb | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: RAYN Clocks vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Seasonthis page
- LoL: RAYN Clocks vs Arneb - Game 1 WinnerArneb won
- LoL: RAYN Clocks vs Arneb - Game 2 WinnerArneb won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.