Bundesliga · resolved market
Will the match between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc994c2137ba13ba3abc7a8081170eedee3c7f21f97b60117c3ecf6aabb2a7b2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 2,900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 17c | 1,750$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 13c | 950.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 13c | 799.66$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 4c | 774.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…720abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48e…8f7dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…dff2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…c1c5backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.