Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf43e0513682855e8e87297fa95834cd9f67781c22e9785032fe39c01907508e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52e4…1b25backed Yes | 9c | 13,194$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 10c | 6,139$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.84 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 3,842$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…69b2backed Yes | 10c | 2,149$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b8ecbacked Yes | 11c | 1,497$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 11c | 969.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 11c | 902.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a31…5dd9backed Yes | 8c | 663$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 9c | 370.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5237…89babacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…d498backed Yes | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed Yes | 10c | 108.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…e745backed Yes | 9c | 106.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig?Yes won
- Will the match between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.