Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x524111be639c9b4769f7066cdbbb1c0733ff11bbb41e6005bc522a14b23dd3ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 78c | 12,251$9,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 21c | 9,619$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 0c | 3,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 15c | 3,447$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.3 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 24c | 2,891$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 23c | 2,496$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed Yes | 80c | 2,181$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…f83abacked Yes | 79c | 1,127$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 80c | 1,032$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…0108backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 20c | 990$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e1…c6e2backed No | 21c | 920$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed No | 23c | 861.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 74c | 686.31$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.44 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 80c | 575.83$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.83 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 570$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed No | 21c | 468.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 24c | 431.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 20c | 361$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…720abacked Yes | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3d…f0c9backed No | 21c | 196.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…d8d3backed No | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca8…b081backed Yes | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 78c | 116.42$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 20c | 98.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed No | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 21c | 78.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e9…9507backed Yes | 79c | 78.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…1fddbacked Yes | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaab…944ebacked Yes | 77c | 56.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 23c | 51.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Yes | 80c | 46.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…b4f9backed Yes | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…2d00backed Yes | 80c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf3…f678backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6088…9c9ebacked Yes | 80c | 20.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7f…9dc8backed Yes | 78c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…0990backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich?No won
- Will the match between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.