Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2f389cd6c26429c26cf5589faf2c6cfd6488c9c30713010d4ad67781ce0026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,204 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95e0…d772backed No | 55c | 11,000$6,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,001.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…5e9dbacked No | 1c | 10,260$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 47c | 9,423$4,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,036.97 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,280$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.93 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 13c | 370.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 63c | 223.18$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 37c | 192.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 185.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 56c | 99.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b91…c408backed Yes | 59c | 94.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8f…e3c7backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Yes | 32c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…31a4backed No | 61c | 42.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 62c | 41.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 59c | 35.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc2…9aa3backed No | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 62c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 on March 25?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $295 on March 25?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.