Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4dd0ed14bd7cc9ed1afa58a7f62e6f437a04b62bb316b75ad0df9560750ea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,438 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c3d…33a7backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…f90dbacked Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85a…3263backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…8d60backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Over | 46c | 2,155$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 1,486$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.13 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 51c | 830.6$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…f294backed Over | 45c | 519$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.45 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…2de7backed Under | 55c | 519$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e0…ac15backed Over | 44c | 420$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…ef63backed Under | 55c | 420$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 162.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Over | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…6762backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d61…418dbacked Over | 51c | 83.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 42c | 77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 53c | 61.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Over | 47c | 55.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Under | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Over | 49c | 40.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 43c | 38.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c69…52fdbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Under | 78c | 27.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Over | 45c | 26.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…9e25backed Under | 61c | 24.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 56c | 22.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerBetBoom Team won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)BetBoom Team won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 56.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 58.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.