Tennis · resolved market
Set 3 Winner: Dimitrov vs Berrettini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca9ca9994a6a1d4e4697bd124b40486f018c74fd97cfea6ad9507792f0dc0b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Dimitrov, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Dimitrov | 59c | 845.46$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.87 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Berrettini | 42c | 412.56$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.06 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed Dimitrov | 56c | 300$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 523 | 41.5%217 W · 306 L | -12.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…8c66backed Berrettini | 40c | 249.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…efb4backed Dimitrov | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…63c2backed Dimitrov | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Dimitrov | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Berrettini | 42c | 111.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Berrettini | 45c | 72.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Berrettini | 55c | 59.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Berrettini | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a3…e23dbacked Dimitrov | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Berrettini | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Berrettini | 52c | 19.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 3 Winner: Dimitrov vs Berrettinithis page
- Dimitrov vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Grigor Dimitrov vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Grigor Dimitrov vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs BerrettiniDimitrov won
- Set 2 Winner: Dimitrov vs BerrettiniDimitrov won
- Set 4 Winner: Dimitrov vs BerrettiniBerrettini won
- Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Dimitrov (+1.5)Dimitrov won
- Wimbledon ATP: Completed Match: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo BerrettiniYes won
- Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo BerrettiniGrigor Dimitrov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.