World Politics · resolved market
Will Rishi Sunak be next UK prime minister?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaddc7b29a7f6346cae62c0833ad548c5a609f214507e5525572d31e238f4451
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 17,595$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…4540backed Yes | 5c | 13,439$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0541…57f5backed Yes | 5c | 10,462$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…c87cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,065$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 4c | 7,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 1c | 5,547$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…672fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c88…14d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,720$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed Yes | 5c | 2,309$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…89bfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,232$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…e0a8backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f71…6e31backed Yes | 4c | 1,075$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…59bcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,014$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…3f2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 4c | 999.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…cd56backed Yes | 2c | 937.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…61e1backed Yes | 6c | 753.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 4c | 675.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9384…d168backed Yes | 3c | 671.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 3c | 533$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 5c | 513.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41d9…992ebacked Yes | 4c | 446.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…8aa1backed Yes | 3c | 371.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…64c3backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc344…3674backed Yes | 6c | 319.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…c115backed Yes | 3c | 314.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7314…d626backed Yes | 3c | 292.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5b…7582backed Yes | 5c | 233.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rishi Sunak be next UK prime minister?this page
- Will Boris Johnson be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Grant Shapps be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will James Cleverly be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Jeremy Hunt be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister?Yes won
- Will Kemi Badenoch be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Penny Mordaunt be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Priti Patel be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Robert Jenrick be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Suella Braverman be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will Tom Tugendhat be next UK prime minister?No won
- Will another person be next UK prime minister?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.