South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0a4e9de0ad9a417378c834f61a5412b5c7c570877b58d0768884c88a30e543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,789 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 47c | 5,903$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 5,515$3,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.73 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 4,418$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.43 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 33c | 1,516$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 29c | 1,070$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.06 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 581.32$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.67 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 36c | 444.44$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Over | 4c | 444$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 26c | 364.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Over | 43c | 268.07$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 248.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…2774backed Under | 73c | 246.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 188.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 42c | 163.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…8cdebacked Over | 35c | 150.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728c…8434backed Over | 31c | 120.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 42c | 109.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Under | 66c | 58.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 52.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Under | 56c | 37.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Over | 48c | 37.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…2e72backed Under | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 69c | 31.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…a400backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fluminense FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.