South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-10-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0b7c12588b7e6f6e6165a4f8006913c0034e31a19aa7a44d85468211746a24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe081…a4b1backed Yes | 39c | 7,005$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,303 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…3cd4backed No | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 36c | 2,938$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.32 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x462c…2fa3backed No | 63c | 2,006$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…4e5bbacked No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 63c | 1,856$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.44 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 41c | 1,231$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 36c | 1,128$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.03 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Yes | 37c | 1,056$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 62c | 635$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.7 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 505.89$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.91 | 828 | 34.5%286 W · 542 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 36c | 500$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Yes | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 7c | 335.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 244$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 63c | 94.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…6e44backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…9332backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…1794backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 58c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked No | 74c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mazatlán FC win on 2025-10-03?this page
- Will Atlético San Luis win on 2025-10-03?No won
- Will Mazatlán FC vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.