Tennis · resolved market
Sao Leopoldo: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Gustavo Heide
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb85ecde2a98da0e12dac0ca8a9d77e079b737f934dd5260fbf1f9035a8e1d25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gustavo Heideof Juan Manuel La Serna, Gustavo Heide
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 20c | 2,098$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.06 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 10c | 1,681$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 6c | 1,573$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 246 | 38.2%94 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Gustavo Heide | 78c | 843.5$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.07 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 22c | 793.22$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 21c | 599.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 21c | 576$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 18c | 475.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 428.73$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 9c | 397.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 328.2$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52aa…505ebacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 16c | 296.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -65%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 9c | 281.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 9c | 281.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 853 | 48.7%415 W · 438 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 9c | 281.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 501 | 56.1%281 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 9c | 281.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 10c | 221.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 152 | 29.6%45 W · 107 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 6c | 206.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…6455backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 7c | 204.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 121 | 7.4%9 W · 112 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 19c | 184.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4e0cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 7c | 149.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Gustavo Heide | 80c | 148.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 14c | 128.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Gustavo Heide | 79c | 123.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…5813backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 28c | 108.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 196 | 34.2%67 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…86b5backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Gustavo Heide | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 27c | 85.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Gustavo Heide | 77c | 76.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 73.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gustavo Heide | 72c | 52.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…e669backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 49.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 229 | 63.3%145 W · 84 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 21c | 47.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Gustavo Heide | 76c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Gustavo Heide | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 308 | 53.6%165 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Gustavo Heide | 76c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 689 | 51.1%352 W · 337 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sao Leopoldo: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Gustavo Heidethis page
- Juan Manuel La Serna vs. Gustavo Heide: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.