TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 150-159 times on Truth Social from Feb 14-21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,998 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x571c…1f49backed Yes3c51,500$1,597 inLost-$1,596.5911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes1c3,052$18 inLost-$18.4226516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c1,528$55 inLost-$54.762303.9%9 W · 221 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes9c1,077$93 inLost-$93.1665623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c5…31ccbacked Yes3c720.21$24 inLost-$24.0570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes4c699.94$28 inLost-$27.9442628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2b84…74c6backed Yes9c433.81$41 inLost-$40.734820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x337f…3506backed Yes4c409.21$15 inLost-$14.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes4c339.97$15 inLost-$151060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+213.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes7c334.91$23 inLost-$23.4634714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.