TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160 or more times on Truth Social from Feb 14-21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,546 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes57c1,741$999 inWon+$742.1734714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No2c1,488$36 inLost-$35.687545.3%34 W · 41 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No33c1,096$363 inLost-$363.1742628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcc7…92c1backed No1c1,064$13 inLost-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed No15c1,012$157 inLost-$156.8565623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes18c504.96$91 inWon+$413.511060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+213.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x337f…3506backed No12c231.35$28 inLost-$27.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No14c195$27 inLost-$26.582711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No58c186.51$108 inLost-$107.718531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes16c186.29$30 inWon+$155.913327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No12c176.98$21 inLost-$21.054050%20 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed No36c159.24$58 inLost-$58.091154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9174…3af9backed Yes23c135.75$32 inWon+$104.12933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b84…74c6backed Yes24c133.9$32 inWon+$101.524820.8%10 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb707…d4a4backed Yes21c128.84$27 inWon+$101.691915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb1…e96bbacked No14c101.21$14 inLost-$14.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No79c100$79 inLost-$79.0711231.3%35 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes16c80.58$13 inWon+$67.955345.3%24 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+56.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bf4…fdbebacked Yes22c69.54$16 inWon+$53.92837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed No72c64.99$47 inLost-$46.931369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes21c53.23$11 inWon+$42.0512814.1%18 W · 110 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e6…2cc5backed No50c49.99$25 inLost-$251526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No77c30$23 inLost-$23.182614.9%123 W · 703 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c20.1$15 inLost-$15.4851845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdefe…5eb5backed No80c14.63$12 inLost-$11.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.