Tennis · resolved market
Paris: Madison Keys vs Fiona Ferro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbf9267ebadd4deb92719f47a53d1b5dd97425e4d472303df0eb1a00b0097587
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Madison Keysof Madison Keys, Fiona Ferro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Fiona Ferro | 16c | 14,829$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,351.05 | 941 | 40.6%382 W · 559 L | -31.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Fiona Ferro | 4c | 8,070$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.23 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Madison Keys | 79c | 4,882$3,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.27 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | -14.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Fiona Ferro | 5c | 3,013$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 975 | 7.9%77 W · 898 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Fiona Ferro | 20c | 3,002$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.3 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Fiona Ferro | 22c | 2,995$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.86 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Fiona Ferro | 10c | 2,313$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.75 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Fiona Ferro | 18c | 937.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.06 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d68…4354backed Fiona Ferro | 14c | 852.76$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 222 | 43.2%96 W · 126 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d93…0eccbacked Fiona Ferro | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Fiona Ferro | 8c | 447.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Fiona Ferro | 19c | 413.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 855 | 68.3%584 W · 271 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Fiona Ferro | 16c | 411.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Madison Keys | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 244 | 61.1%149 W · 95 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…7a21backed Fiona Ferro | 12c | 363.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…ab00backed Fiona Ferro | 24c | 315$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Fiona Ferro | 19c | 259.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed Fiona Ferro | 7c | 254.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Fiona Ferro | 13c | 246.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Fiona Ferro | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Madison Keys | 77c | 181.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Fiona Ferro | 13c | 172.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fiona Ferro | 15c | 121.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Fiona Ferro | 24c | 119.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 2,868 | 49.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…46c8backed Fiona Ferro | 11c | 100.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 228 | 21.1%48 W · 180 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…6f62backed Madison Keys | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 560 | 62.5%350 W · 210 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Fiona Ferro | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Madison Keys | 70c | 80.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Fiona Ferro | 21c | 74.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…2ae7backed Madison Keys | 71c | 58.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…dcb7backed Fiona Ferro | 30c | 54.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Fiona Ferro | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 158 | 31%49 W · 109 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Fiona Ferro | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Madison Keys | 79c | 38.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Madison Keys | 71c | 32.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 904 | 59.5%538 W · 366 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…5922backed Madison Keys | 69c | 24.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Madison Keys | 79c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…d305backed Madison Keys | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.